Biggest Games That Will Determine AFC #1 Seed

 

We're in the end game now and the AFC #1 seed is up for grabs as we approach week 14. The Miami Dolphins currently sit at the top of the AFC at 9-3 tied for the best record in the conference with Baltimore but the Chiefs and Jaguars are both still lurking around at 8-4. The #1 seed is going to come down to the wire and while yes, every game is important from here on out, there are a few games that I really want to highlight that could make a huge impact on who gets home field advantage come January

Week 14 Rams @ Ravens
The Rams have started to really heat up as of late and they now travel to Baltimore who are coming off of their bye. This is a must win game for Baltimore as Miami, who is currently Baltimore's top competition for the #1 seed, is at home on Monday night against a reeling Titans team. 

Week 14 Jaguars @ Browns
The Trevor Lawrence ankle sprain makes this game even more intriguing. Jacksonville has a tough schedule coming up and they are going to need to win this game to try to stay on pace with Miami, KC, and Baltimore and while they will be playing Joe Flacco/DTR, they probably will be starting C.J Beathard. 

Week 14 Bills @ Chiefs
Week 14 is pretty important huh? Not only is this game massive for the #1 seed but it is massive for Miami. If the Bills lose and Miami beats the Titans and the Jets, they will win the AFC East for the 1st time since 2008. Now if Buffalo is able to pull off a win in Arrowhead, then Miami will move further away from the Chiefs assuming they are able to take care of business on Monday night. Win win! 

Week 15 Ravens @ Jaguars
Will Trevor Lawrence be able to play in this game after suffering the ankle sprain in week 13? A loss to Baltimore would almost assuredly knock Jacksonville out of contention for the #1 seed

Week 16 Cowboys @ Dolphins
The two teams that "Can't beat anyone good" will face off on Christmas Eve at Hard Rock Stadium in what will be a massive game for both teams. Dallas is trying to keep pace with San Fran and Philly for the #1 seed while Miami, if all things go to plan against the Titans and Jets, will be trying to hold onto their top spot. With this game at home you have to feel good as a Dolphin's fan (Plus you are rocking the throwbacks) but this game will be huge in determining where Miami slots in the AFC. But not as big as week 17....

Week 16 Ravens @ 49ers
I think one of the underrated aspects of this game is that the Ravens have to go cross country to play the best team in the NFC on a Monday before they play a very important game at home on Sunday. 

Week 17 Dolphins @ Ravens
This one is going to determine A LOT. Heck, if all goes well for Miami, this could be a win and you've locked up the #1 seed if you win your next 4 and Jacksonville loses to Baltimore and KC loses one game. Only issue is the Chiefs haven't been on this list since the Bills game because they don't really play ANYONE after Buffalo (@ NE, vs LV, vs Cin, @ LA) so Kansas City might be sitting here and walking into the #1 seed depending on how Miami and Baltimore do going into this game. Baltimore will be highly motivated after last year's game and this will be the one true cold weather test for Miami before the playoffs. I can't stress enough how important this game is going to be. 

Week 18 Buffalo @ Miami
Miami gets the hardest draw in week 18 as the Bills travel to Miami to potentially save their season while KC will be on the road to play the Chargers who will be waiting to give Brandon Staley his pink slip after the game, Jacksonville will be taking on Tennessee, and the Ravens will be at home taking on the Steelers. Even if Buffalo is already eliminated at this point, the Bills have owned you and you know for a fact that Buffalo is going to do everything they can to beat Miami and prevent them from having the #1 seed. 

To me it is simple for Miami. You have 4/5 at home to end the year. If you want the #1 seed, run the table. Easier said than done but that needs to be Miami's ultimate goal. Beat Dallas and Buffalo at home and steal a road win from Baltimore. Just imagine if the Dolphins are able to force the entire AFC to come to Miami where it'll still be hot in January and have to play this track team at home....