Hallo Deutschland! The Chiefs and Dolphins are heading to Germany to square off in a game that could have a lot of impact on AFC playoff seeding down the line.
Last Week:
Miami beat the Patriots 31-17
Chiefs lost to the Broncos 24-9
Advantages:
QB: Chiefs
- While Tua has played better this year, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if Tua outplays Mahomes on Sunday but Patrick Mahomes is the best QB on the planet and it isn't even close. We as Dolphins fans have to brace ourselves for Mahomes to do some really annoying stuff against us on Sunday because that is just what he does.
RB: Push
- If Miami had De'Von Achane it would be a clear advantage for Miami but they don't and the running game has struggled the last two weeks behind an offensive line that remains in question this week. Plus we also have to continue to worry about Raheem's fumbling issues. Isiah Pacheco hasn't had any dominant stretches but the combo of Pacheco and McKinnon out of the backfield is really good (When the Chiefs actually use McKinnon)
WR: Dolphins
- Man the Chiefs could really use a player like Tyreek Hill to open up their offense huh? This Chiefs receiving core is really bad and while some guys have shown promise, like Rashee Rice, even he has had struggles. Rice is leading the NFL with a 16.7% drop rate followed by none other than Kadarius Toney's 15.8% drop rate (Toney is also averaging 5.7 yards per catch, insane). Justin Watson is the guy to watch as he is averaging over 21 yards per catch. Waddle and Hill are coming off their best combo game of the season, but we can also have a drop conversation with them, and should get plenty of opportunities again this week.
TE: Chiefs
- I could make some sort of Taylor Swift joke here but I couldn't even give you a song title let alone a lyric that would make sense here. Travis Kelce is the best tight end in the NFL and I could make an argument for the best of all time with the production he has put up in his career. I would love to see Jalen Ramsey shadow him but I don't know if Fangio will allow it. Durham Smythe is nursing an injury and Julian Hill continues to just be solid (Congrats on your first NFL catch Julian).
OL: Chiefs?
- This one is tough again because we don't know who is going to be available for Miami but the tackles for Kansas City are horrible. I mean, who is surprised that Donovan Smith, a guy Tampa couldn't get rid of faster, is once again playing bad and Jawaan Taylor has just been bad for a $20m per year tackle The one saving grace for Kansas City is that their interior trio might be the best in the league. Miami might get Terron Armstead back this week but that is very much a wait and see situation. The same can be said for Connor Williams who dressed last week as a reserve which makes me think he has to be close?
DL/EDGE: Push
- This Dolphins front is coming off another really strong performance last week. Bradley Chubb continues to ball and Jaelen Phillips is back to full strength. For as good as Miami's front has been as of late, the Chiefs front has been just as good despite being severely underrated this season. Chris Jones, 5.5 sacks, is the best defensive tackle in the NFL and this year he actually has help around him. George Karlaftis is enjoying a nice 2nd season leading the team in sacks with 6 and Mike Danna is having his own breakout season with 5.5 sacks through 8 games. Charles Omenihu just returned from suspension two weeks ago and has 1.5 sacks as well. This Chiefs front is good and I feel like Dolphins fans think Miami just has to stop Chris Jones this week.
LB: Push (Unless Gay is out then advantage Miami)
- This one really comes down to whether or not Willie Gay is able to play after leaving last Sunday's game with a tailbone injury. Jerome Baker and, even more so, David Long have been playing great as of late which has been such a positive improvement for this Dolphins defense. KC does have nice depth with Leo Chenal (Former draft crush) and Dru Tranquill, but with Nick Bolton on IR and Willie Gay's status up in the air, Miami might have the advantage here.
CB: Push
- The big question here is whether or not Xavien Howard will play this week after he said he was going to play against Philly two weeks ago and hasn't returned. It is looking like Miami will get him back this week after listening to McDaniel on Wednesday but we will know more Friday. I can tell you who is playing though, Jalen Ramsey and uh in case there was any doubt, the guy is still elite. The Chiefs corner group is young but extremely talented. Trent McDuffie is on his way to becoming a superstar and Lajarius Sneed is having another strong year. They have a much tougher match up this week against the Dolphins receivers than the Dolphins corners do against the Chiefs receivers but this group is low key really good and playing great this season.
S: Push
- The Chiefs have one of the most underrated safety duos in the league with Justin Reid and the combo of Bryan Cook and Mike Edwards. Miami should get Jevon Holland back but I am still waiting for the big impact from this safety group. Brandon Jones had a chance at a few balls on Sunday so hopefully the return of Jalen Ramsey continues to force balls over the middle and Holland and Elliott can make a few plays.
Key Injuries
The light at the end of the tunnel is there for Miami from an injury standpoint. Mike McDaniel confirmed Wednesday that Jevon Holland is back after clearing concussion protocol and McDaniel also confirmed that Terron Armstead's window will open and he will practice and that he won't rule him out for Sunday. Connor Williams also has a good chance to return this week to the starting lineup. The big one to watch is Robert Hunt. Hunt did not practice Wednesday but McDaniel seemed upbeat about the possibility of Hunt returning to practice later in the week. Next week is the bye and this game is going to go a long way in determining seeding come January so we have to hope everyone that can play, will play.
For the Chiefs, Willie Gay missed practice on Wednesday and questions were asked about whether or not the injury would send Gay to IR. The Chiefs missing Willie Gay and Nick Bolton (already on IR) would be huge for Miami's chances in this game. Yes the Chiefs still have Dru Tranquill but missing those two could open up the middle of the field even more for Miami
Key Story Lines/Keys to Victory
There are a couple things I am watching this week outside of the actual players. Number one is the condition of the field. It is supposed to rain all week in Frankfurt and the NFL hasn't had the best track record with their fields overseas. The NFL did say that they were going to use some sort of hybrid field for the two Germany games but it remains to be seen how this will affect the game. The other thing I am watching is the travel plans for each team. The Chiefs are leaving for Germany on Thursday as opposed to Miami who arrived early Tuesday morning in Germany. We saw the Bills be heavily affected by their Thursday arrival in their game against Jacksonville so it will be interesting to see if the Chiefs are a little sluggish come kick off.
On the field, Miami's defense needs to take advantage of the Chiefs tackles. Neither one is playing well and the only way to beat Mahomes is to get him on the ground consistently or get him to a point where he just flushes from a clean pocket into sacks like he did last week against Denver. These are the games that Bradley Chubb and Jaelen Phillips were brought to Miami for. I really hope that Miami decides to have Jalen Ramsey shadow Travis Kelce, especially if Xavien Howard returns to action (looking like there is a solid chance that happens). No one else on the Chiefs scares you as much as Kelce does so don't let Kelce dominate our line backers and safeties, who historically have struggled against tight ends at times, do what he does all too well (I lied, my Fiance had that song of repeat for months).
Offensively, establish the run early and often and keep Tua upright. This Chiefs defense is really good and Steve Spagnuolo is one of the best defensive minds in the NFL. Miami's offense is at its best when the running game is going and, with questions on the offensive line vs this Chiefs pass rush, the best way for Miami to get this offense kicked into full gear is to be balanced, something Miami hasn't been the last two weeks.
Prediction:
If Miami wants to stop all this nonsense about them not being able to beat good teams, they need to take care of a Chiefs team that Miami can beat. I think it will be a little sloppy to start because of the field conditions but the talent of Miami's defensive front does enough to disrupt Mahomes that Miami heads into the bye week 7-2.
Dolphins 27 Chiefs 24