Last Week:
Miami lost to the Eagles 31-17
Patriots beat the Bills 29-25
Advantages:
QB: Dolphins
- While Mac Jones played probably the best game of his career last week, Tua has far outplayed Mac this season and honestly played really well in Philly outside of the interception. Tagovailoa is going to need another strong performance this week if this team wants to move to 6-2 considering all of the injuries this unit has.
RB: Dolphins*
- Assuming Raheem Mostert plays, the Dolphins backfield is superior to the Patriots this year. Rhamondre Stevenson is one of those plays that I love but hate because he is on the Patriots but he is only averaging 3.1 ypc on the season while Ezekiel Elliott is only averaging 3.7. Mostert did not practice Wednesday but should be good to go for Sunday. It will be interesting to see if Miami gets Jeff Wilson a bit more involved this week.
WR: Dolphins
- We were hit with the news on Wednesday that Tyreek Hill did not practice due to a hip injury and his status is in question for Sunday. Even if Tyreek doesn't play, the Dolphins receiving core is better than the Patriots receiving core. Demario Douglas has been a great find for New England and Kendrick Bourne played well last week, minus a fumble, but a receiving core of Waddle, Wilson, Berrios, Claypool, and Anderson is far superior to Patriots group.
TE: Patriots
- Miami isn't going to beat many (if any) teams here, especially if Durham Smythe plays like he did last week against the Eagles in which he was essentially benched for a UDFA in Julian Hill. Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki haven't done a lot this year but hey, at least Gesicki beat Buffalo last week.
OL: Push?
- This one is tough. The Patriots are finally healthy on the OL and they played a solid game against the Bills last week only allowing 1 sack but the run blocking wasn't good. Miami meanwhile enters week 8 with their starting left tackle and left guard on IR and their starting center wrapped in the most protective bubble wrap ever. I'll give this a push because we won't know the status of Connor Williams until Friday or Sunday.
DL/EDGE: Dolphins
- This Dolphins front is really starting to click, especially the edge rushers. Jaelen Phillips finally looked like Jaelen Phillips again as he continues to look like his old self after the injury and Bradley Chubb is really starting to turn it on. Wilkins and Sieler didn't have their best games against Philly and will need a strong performance vs the Patriots interior offensive line. For the Patriots, Christian Barmore has been really good this season and Josh Uche is always a treat to get after the QB but the rest of their group leaves a lot to be desired, especially with Matt Judon out.
LB: Dolphins
- I talked about this in Fins Up or Fins Down, but Jerome Baker and David Long are playing really good football right now and while there is no question that Ja'Whaun Bentley, Jahalani Tavi, and the rookie Marte Mapu are playing well, the high level of production and run fits from Baker and Long give Miami the edge here
CB: Dolphins
- I am calling my shot, Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard play on Sunday. Adding those two to the return of Nik Needham and the return of Kader Kohou to the slot (which means Eli Apple to the bench) gives Miami one of the best corner rooms in the league. Jack Jones is back for the Patriots and will be one to watch. We can hope that New England puts J.C Jackson out on the field against Jaylen Waddle (or Tyreek if he plays) because as we saw in week 1, that is an advantage for Miami.
S: Patriots
- The Dolphins are probably not going to have Jevon Holland this week as he is in concussion protocol. The Patriots group of Jabrill Peppers, Kyle Dugger, and Jalen Mills is definitely better than a Miami group of Brandon Jones and DeShon Elliott (who has played well). Watch out though for Nik Needham potentially getting some safety reps this week.
Key Injuries
Outside of the guys who are on IR, the Patriots don't have a lot of key injuries going into week 8. Keion White was the only Patriot to miss practice while in concussion protocol and while his loss would suck for New England, they are relatively healthy else where despite having a bunch of guys limited.
For Miami, there is a lot to talk about with injuries. Is Connor Williams finally going to play again? While I certainly hope so with your starting LT and LG on IR, who knows at this point what the plan is there. Tyreek Hill's status is up in the air with a hip injury despite him saying on his pod that he is going for over 100 yards this weekend (UPDATE: Tyreek returned to practice Thursday and WILL play Sunday). And your top 5 corners were all limited with some sort of injuries so that's fun for Miami. Cam Smith was hurt in practice on Wednesday with a foot injury so Miami's depth at corner is still a concern (Not that Smith was likely to play anyway).
Key Story Lines/Keys to Victory
I have two big key story lines this week for Miami. Number one, how is this offense going to perform if it is without LT1, LG1, and C1? We saw a Dolphins team last week offensively that looked like a shell of itself but they can't have that two weeks in a row just because of injuries. Miami is going to have to come out and establish the run early on because there are rushing yards to be had against this Patriots defense.
The other big story line I am watching is how this secondary does against the Patriots limited receiving core. If Jalen Ramsey, Xavien Howard, Kader Kohou, and Nik Needham all play, Miami should be able to shut down this Patriots passing offense and I am excited to see how it all unfolds. I wonder if Jalen Ramsey is going to be used all over the field this week or if they are going to slowly bring him back into the fold. Mac Jones had his best game of the season last week but he still isn't throwing the ball down field, he only had 1 attempt past 20 yards last week.
Prediction:
I won't lie, I am very nervous for this game because of all of the injuries Miami has on the offensive side of the ball. With that being said, they are clearly the better team, at home, and rocking the best uniform in the NFL this week. I will take Miami in a low scoring affair (By Miami's standards).
Dolphins 24 Patriots 14