It's week 5 and the Dolphins (3-1) are back at home to take on the struggling New York Giants (1-3). Miami is looking to bounce back after a humbling loss to the Bills and the Giants might just be what the doctor ordered
Last Week:
- Miami lost to Buffalo 48-20
- Giants lost to Seattle 24-3
Advantages:
QB: Dolphins
- Tua Tagovailoa had an off game this week throwing for "only" 282 yards on 71.4% passing, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt, and throwing 1 TD against one of the top defenses in the NFL. Tua did have a bad interception and should've been picked off again on a robber coverage from Tre White but overall Tua was solid in week 4 and overall this season has been a top 5 QB. Daniel Jones meanwhile continues to steal money from the N.Y Giants. After signing his 4 year $160m contract this off-season, Jones has turned in a very solid 2 TD to 6 INT performance so far this year. Yes, the OL sucks and the weapons suck too but that is what happens when your roster already is in a bad spot from a talent and cap perspective and you overpay a QB because you overreacted to the season you had in 2022.
RB: Dolphins
- De'Von Achane is a stud and one bad game from Mostert is going to have me overreacting. Mostert has been a stud this year and unfortunately he had a bad game against Buffalo. The Giants meanwhile may get Saquon Barkley back this week but even if he is, will he be 100%? Probably not. Behind Saquon you have former Dolphins' legend Matt Breida and former 6th round pick Gary Brightwell. Neither of those dudes match up to what Miami has and we could potentially see the return of Jeff Wilson this week.
WR: Dolphins
- Not only is this rinse, wash, repeat, this is complete and utter annihilation. The Giants receiving core is awful. Their leading wide receiver this year is Darius Slayton who has 11 catches for 132 yards. The Giants need to get Jalin Hyatt more involved in their offense and quick.
TE: Giants
- Durham Smythe has been fine and Julian Hill has done a solid job in the run game so far but neither of them are the kind of threat that Darren Waller is. I know that Waller, like the entire Giant's offense, isn't off to a hot start but Waller is still a stud match up problem that the Giants COULD exploit against the Dolphins if Miami has Jerome Baker or David Long cover him.
OL: Dolphins
- Look, for as bad as Miami's offensive line was against Buffalo, the Giants were even worse. Daniel Jones was sack TEN times against the Seahawks last week (11 total sacks) meaning the Giants have allowed 23 sacks in 4 games! Evan Neal is a turnstile at right tackle and makes Austin Jackson look like a stud. Miami should hopefully get Connor Williams back which would send Liam Eichenberg back to the bench where he can play guard and tackle. Guard the water cooler, tackle anyone that gets near it.
DL/EDGE: Giants
- Not only is the combination of Dexter Williams, Leonard Williams, A'Shawn Robinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux really good, the Dolphins DL and EDGE group has been really bad. Has the Giants group had a lot of success this year? No. But neither has Miami and while New York has had some blow out losses, nobody is dominating them on the ground.
LB: Push
- Not that PFF is the end all be all but lets look at some PFF grades for the starting LBs in this game. Jerome Baker 52.5, David Long 62.7, Bobby Okereke 68.3, Micah McFadden 49.1. Just an average group of linebackers. For Miami, it can't be stated how disappointing the play of Baker and Long has been. Each makes one or two splash plays a game but that's it. They are consistently in the wrong gap, consistently out of position to make a tackle, just bad football from a position that is vital in these light box count defenses.
CB: Dolphins
- Kader Kohou struggled heavily last week but we can't let one game cloud our judgement for how well Kader has played since joining the Dolphins. Miami's corners need to step up and it might be time for Cam Smith to start getting some meaningful reps but I can not pick the Giants rookie duo of Tre Hawkins and Deonte Banks over Xavien Howard and Kader Kohou
S: Dolphins
- Miami has the edge here assuming that DeShon Elliott is back this week as he was sorely missed last week. Brandon Jones was a train wreck last week and Jevon didn't have his best game either. Still, Miami's duo of Holland and a healthy Elliott are better than the Giants duo of Pinnock, whose been bad this year, and McKinney (who is a stud).
Key Injuries
The Dolphins and Giants both have some pretty big injury concerns entering into this game. For Miami, the status of Jaelen Phillips, Connor Williams, and DeShon Elliott are up in the air while Terron Armstead will be out for a few weeks with a new knee injury. For the Giants, Saquon Barkely is expected to return to practice this week but whether or not he plays will be intetesting. The Giants could also be without Andrew Thomas, Shane Lemieux, and second round pick John Michael-Schmitz who did not practice on Wednesday.
Key Story Lines
The key story lines this week are pretty straight forward. Miami's offense needs to come out and get back to their dominant ways against a bad defense and the defense needs to wake up and dominate an awful offense and offensive line. Miami can't overlook teams but this is a team Miami needs to dominate, especially offensively. From a defensive standpoint, Miami needs to get their pass rush going and if they can't get it going this week, we are going to have to ask some tough questions about the players on defense. There is too much talent on defense for Miami to not be good there and yet here we are, a bottom 10 defense.
Game Preview/Key to Victory for Miami
Mike McDaniel said on Monday that there are no "get right" games in the NFL. He's not wrong, but this has a chance to be that for Miami. This is a game the Dolphins should win, point blank and simple. Just look at the Giants standing on offense and defense:
Defensively the key for Miami will be to stop the ground game early and often, to include limiting Daniel Jones scrambling ability. I full expect Miami to give up a big play to Jones scrambling, but if Miami can limit him and potentially Saquon, Miami's pass rush SHOULD (really emphasizing the should) be able to win their match ups up front. The Giant's pass game shouldn't scare the Dolphins and if Miami can get to a point where Jones is dropping back to pass 30+ times, Miami should be in a good position to move to 4-1.
PREDICTION: