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Last week:
- Miami defeated Carolina 42-21
- Philadelphia lost to the Jets 20-14
Advantages:
QB: Dolphins
- Tua Tagovailoa is playing better than any QB in the league this year while Jalen Hurts has struggled at times. Hurts has thrown 7 TDs to 7 INTs this season and while there is no question that Hurts is a stud, he hasn't played like it this season outside of the Washington game. Now am I fully expecting Hurts to go off against Miami's defense? Probably. But the advantage going into the game goes to Miami.
RB: Push
- If Miami was healthy here it would easily be Miami but unfortunately Miami is not healthy. They should get Jeff Wilson back this week which will help but missing Achane in a game like this hurts. D'Andre Swift is having a great season and the Eagles have solid and proven depth in Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott. I think this is a push because no matter how well Raheem Mostert is playing, Philly has a stable of guys they could use to run down Miami's defense, including the QB (I know Swift has been featured and only Gainwell has a lot of touches).
WR: Push
- I said earlier this season that I doubt I would ever give anyone Miami played the advantage at receiver and while I am not doing that here, I think it is a push. Tyreek Hill is on another planet this year but we can't discount what AJ Brown is doing this year. Brown is a different receiver than anyone Miami has played this year and I worry about Fangio's refusal to shadow star receivers. Devonta Smith is playing at a similar level to Jaylen Waddle this year so I felt that a push would be best this week. I think both receiving cores have a chance to have a great week.
TE: Eagles
- This one is pretty easy. Dallas Goedert is one of the best tight ends in football and Miami really hasn't used Smythe or Hill in the passing game. Now I will say, Smythe and Hill have been blocking their you know what's off this season which has been a major plus for Miami.
OL: Eagles
- The Eagles probably have the best offensive line in all of football. 4/5 of their starters have Pro Bowl potential/have been all pros. For as good as Miami's offensive line has played this year, the Eagles are just on another level. They have given up 14 sacks this season but some of those fall onto the shoulders of Jalen Hurts.
DL/EDGE: Eagles
- Remember that thing I just said about the Eagles having the best offensive line in football and for as good as Miami's unit has played Philly is just on another level? Yeah, the same can be said here. Jalen Carter has been ridiculously good this season as a rookie and when you add him into a line up that includes Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, Haason Riddick, Josh Sweat, and Jordan Davis, look out. Miami's front has been better as of late but they are going to have to play their best game to pull one out against the Eagles.
LB: Dolphins
- Miami gets this nod because of the improved play of David Long and how weak the Eagles are at linebacker. Nicholas Morrow did have a great game against Washington recording 3 sacks in that game but outside of that, they are just okay.
CB: Push
- This one is really close but neither unit is playing up to their expected standards. Philly is ridiculously banged up in the secondary and while Darius Slay should be back after missing last weeks game against the Jets with a knee injury, who knows how he is going to respond coming off the injury plus Slay has struggled this season allowing 27 receptions (8th worst in the league). Meanwhile, the Dolphins two main corners aren't much better in turns of receptions allowed as Kader Kohuo and Xavien Howard have each allowed 26 receptions while Eli Apple continues to get cooked each week. The secondary that steps up the most might be what allows one team to take the win in week 7.
S: Dolphins
- This one is pretty easy. Philadelphia has one, ONE, healthy safety on their roster right now. The Eagles are so banged up that Eagles GM Howie Roseman and his staff spent Monday scouring the rest of the league for external assistance at secondary according to former Dolphin turned Eagles beat writer Josh Tolentino. We are once again waiting for that big impact play from either Jevon Holland or DeShon Elliott but the duo has been good at not allowing big plays in the passing game. It'll be a big week for the duo as Jalen Hurts loves to throw the ball deep to the likes of AJ Brown and Devonta Smith.
Key Injuries
Miami and Philly both have key injuries that each team will need to monitor. For Miami, Connor Williams is the key guy to watch this week as Miami is going to need him against this talented Eagles front. Williams and Xavien Howard didn't practice Wednesday with groin injuries which is concerning. We are officially on Jalen Ramsey watch now that he has 21-day window has opened and while he won't play this week, we can at least look forward to his return very soon.
For the Eagles (who held a walk through instead of an actual practice), Lane Johnson suffered a lateral ankle sprain and his status is in question but Eagles beat writer Jeff McLane thinks that Johnson will push to play even though he did not practice Wednesday. Jalen Carter and Darius Slay both practiced in a limited fashion. Slay returning would be massive because as we've talked about, the Eagles secondary is extremely banged up so it'll be worth keeping an eye out for who else practices this week. Reed Blankinship and Bradley Roby both missed practice Wednesday and their status' is in doubt. The other big name to keep an eye on is Devonta Smith who did not practice with a hamstring injury.
Key Story Lines/Keys to Victory
Tua Tagovailoa traveling to Philly to take on Jalen Hurts, the QB he replaced in the 2018 National Championship Game, will assuredly grab a lot of headlines and deservedly so. Tua is playing at an MVP level to start the season and Jalen Hurts is coming off a season in which he was an MVP candidate and took his team to the Super Bowl. Each QB will have a chance to have a big day against the opposing secondaries but that will likely be determined by what I believe is the biggest story line in this game, the play of the trenches.
The Dolphins' offensive line has been phenomenal this season but the Eagles defensive line will be their biggest test, especially if Connor Williams misses Sunday's game. If the Dolphins can get their running game going, I really like their chances of going into Philly and getting the win but it will be a massive challenge.
| MIAMI | PHILADELPHIA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rush Play % | 44.92% (#8) | 30.41% (#1) | Opp Rush Play % |
| Yards/Rush | 6.5 (#1) | 3.6 (#6) | Opp Yards/Rush |
| Rushes/Game | 28.0 (#10) | 18.5 (#1) | Opp Rushes/Game |
| Rush Yards/Game | 181.8 (#1) | 65.8 (#2) | Opp Rush Yards/Game |
| Rush TDs/Game | 2.5 (#1) | 0.5 (#7) | Opp Rush TDs/Game |
It will be strength on strength when the Dolphins try to run the ball as the Dolphins are first in the NFL in yards per carry (6.5) and first in rush yards per game (181.8) while the Eagles are 6th in yards allowed per carry (3.6) and second in rush yards allowed per game (65.8).
Meanwhile the match up that REALLY scares me is the Dolphins defensive front against the Eagles offensive line. The Dolphins rush defense will be really tested this week and while the stats have improved a lot since week 1's debacle, I am very worried about how Miami will play against the run.
| PHILADELPHIA | MIAMI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rush Play % | 46.96% (#3) | 42.21% (#13) | Opp Rush Play % |
| Yards/Rush | 4.5 (#8) | 4.1 (#18) | Opp Yards/Rush |
| Rushes/Game | 33.5 (#2) | 28.0 (#16) | Opp Rushes/Game |
| Rush Yards/Game | 150.0 (#2) | 114.5 (#20) | Opp Rush Yards/Game |
| Rush TDs/Game | 1.2 (#7) | 1.2 (#23) | Opp Rush TDs/Game |
I don't think either pass game is going to have issues moving the ball this week. Miami is banged up at corner with Xavien's groin injury and Philly is of course banged up in the secondary. The only concern I have for each team is the pass rush. Miami is first in the NFL in QB hits and tied for 3rd in sacks while the Eagles are just behind Miami with 20 sacks.
Prediction:
I think this game will be close but I am going to pick the Eagles to win this one. I think Miami's offensive will be able to move the ball a bit but I do worry that Philly's front will take over and shut down Miami's run game. Last time Miami played a front like the Eagles was Buffalo and outside of some explosive runs by De'Von Achane, Miami couldn't run the ball. I am worried about Miami's injuries, specifically Xavien Howard, who will practice Thursday, and Connor Williams. I worry about Miami's secondary trying to stop AJ Brown and Dallas Goedert, especially if Philly ends up putting AJ Brown to Eli Apple's side a bunch, and I am really worried about Miami's run defense this week. If Miami can force a turnover or two, something they haven't done since week 3 against Denver, then I think the Dolphins could pull off the road victory.
PREDICTION: Eagles 31 Dolphins 28
*Also, huge L by the NFL for not having Miami wear their white throwbacks this week against the Eagles' Kelly Green uniforms.