It's week 4 and the Dolphins are back on the road to take on the Buffalo Bills. Both teams are coming off dominate wins and are looking to set the tone for what looks like a two team AFC East race
Last Week:
- Dolphins defeated the Broncos 70-20
- Bills defeated the Commanders 37-3
Advantages:
QB: Push
- Call me a homer all you want, there isn't a single QB who is playing at a higher level than Tua Tagovailoa this year. Josh Allen has had turnover struggles to start the season and Tua is dominating every statistical category there is. With this being said, Josh Allen is still good and is still going to make insane and probably irritating plays. It'll be up to Vic Fangio to finally slow down Allen against Miami.
RB: Dolphins
- James Cook has had a fine start to the season but not as fine as Raheem Mostert. Heck, De'Von Achane almost caught up to Cook's rushing total in one game.
WR: Dolphins
- Rinse and repeat as it will be all season. Miami has the best WR duo in the league and will welcome back Jaylen Waddle this week. Losing Cracraft hurts Miami's depth and probably means that Robbie Chosen gets elevated to the 53. For Buffalo, Diggs is a stud while Gabe Davis is hit or miss when it comes to his productivity. Former Dolphins Trent Sherfield who Bills fans thought was the next coming of Wes Welker when he left Miami to join New England only has 2 catches for 18 yards this season.
TE: Bills
- While Durham Smythe is Mr. Reliable, and for as much as I loved what Julian Hill did last week, Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid make up a stronger duo. Buffalo has been a heavy 12 personnel team this season and that trend should continue. It will be interesting to see if the Bills try to get these two more involved this week. Knox is only averaging 6.6 ypc while Kincaid is averaging 6.5 ypc.
OL: Dolphins
- I originally thought I was going to put a push for this game but I just can't after these first 3 week. But, the Bills offensive line is playing really well. Yes the Bills gave up 5 sacks in week one but those were more on Josh Allen trying to play hero ball than anything else. Against a ridiculously talented front 4 in Washington the Bills only allowed one QB hit the whole game and paved the way for James Cook to rush for 6.5 ypc. Meanwhile in Miami, Tua has only been sacked once, rarely hit, and the team ran for 350 yards against the Broncos to go along with what they did in New England.
DL: Bills
- I love the Dolphins top guys on the dline but the Bills dline has been ridiculous to start this season and the big difference between Miami and Buffalo's lines are the depth. Wilkins, Sieler, and Davis make up a solid trio but Leonard Floyd, Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, Jordan Phillips (what?), and Greg Rousseau have been playing really well to start the season and the Bills still have Shaq Lawson and Tim Settle on the bench for depth.
LB: Bills
- Matt Milano, and his late hits, continues to play at an extremely high level this season while the surprise for the Bills' defense has been the play of second year linebacker Terrel Bernard. When the Bills lost Tremaine Edmunds to the Bears in free agency I was ecstatic and now all they have done is found a guy who moves just as well in space but is making more plays in coverage. Jerome Baker and David Long have been fine to start the season but they aren't playing at the level that the Bills duo is.
CB: Push
- Xavien Howard and Tre White are both getting up there in age but are still really solid players while Christian Benford and Kader Kohou have had great starts to their seasons. Both units will be tested heavily in this game and we can only hope that Vic Fangio is able to get more out of the secondary than Josh Boyer ever did.
S: Bills (but barely)
- Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde are still that duo at safety that I just can't bring myself to rank Miami over. Jevon Holland is playing out of his mind and DeShon Elliott is having a strong start the the season but Poyer and Hyde in the same defense they have been running for years get the slight nod over the Dolphins duo. It would not surprise me if by the time these teams meet in week 18 that Miami is the favorite here.
Key Injuries
Miami should get Jaylen Waddle back while Connor Williams and Jaelen Phillips are day to day but both missed practice on Wednesday. Salvon Ahmed will be questionable heading into the week and we will see if he practices full after practicing limited Wednesday. It sounds like River Cracraft will be out for a few weeks and IR is an option there. Meanwhile for Buffalo, the team had a few key guys designated as DNP during Wednesday's practice, Ryan Bates (ankle), Leonard Floyd (ankle), Micah Hyde (hamstring), Jordan Poyer (knee), and Siran Neal (ankle), but it appears as if most of that was veteran maintenance (Hyde and Floyd didn't practice last Wednesday either).
Key Story Lines
This game has so many intriguing match ups. The Dolphins passing offense vs the Bills pass defense that has only allowed 2 touchdowns vs 7 interceptions this season. The Dolphins offensive line that has only allowed 1 sack vs the Bills dline that has 9 sacks in 3 games. And of course, Josh Allen vs Vic Fangio and the Dolphins defense. Will this finally be the year the Dolphins slow him down? We can only hope. It would not surprise me if we see a game plan very similar to the game plan Miami had week 1 against the Chargers but I think you are getting a lot more variance in the play of Josh Allen than you are Justin Herbert.
Game History:
Buffalo has won the last 9/10 against Miami and went 2-1 against Miami last year.
Week 3: Dolphins defeat the Bills 21-19
Week 15: Bills defeat the Dolphins 32-29
Wildcard: Bills defeat the Dolphins 34-31
Game Preview/Key to Victory for Miami
This game has early game of the year vibes and it can't be stated how important a win is for both teams. A win moves Miami to 4-0 and, more importantly, 2.5 games up on the Bills in the division with a 2-0 record in division. A loss for Buffalo will send them to 2-2 with both of their losses being divisional losses.
The biggest game changer for the Dolphins in this game is going to be the effectiveness of the run game. Last week the Dolphins destroyed the Broncos on the ground thanks in large part to the play of the offensive line. If you look at the Next Gen Stats carry chart, this team was popping runs of 5+ yards consistently.
The history of the Miami Dolphins says that this game is going to be a let down. The Bills have won the last 7 games against the Dolphins in Buffalo, meaning the Dolphins haven’t won in Buffalo since 2016 (Jay Ajayi 206 yard game) and before that win was 2011 (Reggie Bush 203 yard game). Does history repeat itself? I am going to say no but it truly is a coin flip game. If Miami wants to be the team that they appear they can be, they need to go into Buffalo and beat the Bills. Mike McDaniel has proven thus far that he has counters for whatever the defense throws at him earning my benefit of the doubt that this team is going to put up some points. It all comes down to the defense and what they are able to do to slow down Josh Allen . I think this game is going to be incredibly close and back and forth for all four quarters with Miami narrowly pulling out the victory.
PREDICTION: Dolphins 31 Bills 30