Much has been made about the possibility of adding a dynamic running back like Derrick Henry or Dalvin cook ever since it was reported, and later confirmed by Minnesota Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, that the Dolphins had trade discussions about adding Cook in March. But is that the right move for this team to make after re-signing all of their backs from last year? What would be the compensation and the cap ramifications be for making a move like this? That is what we are going to look at and discuss.
Make no mistake, Derrick Henry is still one of the best running backs in football and if traded, would be a major addition to any team including the Dolphins. Last season Henry had 349 carries, 1,538 yards, 4.4 YPC, and 13 touchdowns. Pretty good if you ask me, especially when you consider how awful the Titans line and passing game was. So this should be a no-brainer for the Dolphins right? Adding an elite running back to an offense that is going to see light box counts thanks to Hill and Waddle and will open up the RPO game even more for Tua Tagovailoa would be perfect for the team right? Yeah absolutely and I would be over the moon if Miami made this move. The only problem is, how is Miami going to get this done?
Miami currently sits at $2,896,945 in cap space after the Chosen Anderson deal which is fine considering Miami is going to add $13 million in cap space post June 1st. But therein lies the first problem, trading for Derrick Henry is expensive and will take up most of that $13 million. Henry currently has a cap hit of $16,367,647 with the Titans but that number would go down if he is traded to the Dolphins to $11 million (Henry still has $10,500,000 in cash due with a non-prorated bonus of $500,000). If Miami finds a trade partner for Cedric Wilson this trade becomes much easier from a salary standpoint. Trading Cedric clears $6 million but I doubt Miami will be able to make a trade for Cedric happen without eating some money this year. So if Miami has to eat some of Cedric's salary to make a trade work, Miami will be really tight against the cap. Especially when you consider this team still has to sign the four draft picks and needs to add a right tackle, tight end, interior defensive linemen, a safety, and perhaps a guard still. Miami can address most of that with their 4 draft picks but the value isn't going to add up in some of those situations.
Miami could lower Henry's cap hit this season by signing him to a contract extension but would that be a wise thing to do? If you have to choose between trading for and signing Derrick Henry to a contract extension versus signing Christian Wilkins which would you pick? Both are scheduled to be free agents next off-season and Miami currently sits at $14 million OVER the cap (and that is before you sign your draft class). Miami has work to do next off-season to clear cap space, and there are some easy ways to do it, but would it be wise to have a running back a big contract, one who will be 30 next off-season by the way, when you have other guys about to hit the market?
The next issue is draft capital. If Miami makes the move during/before the 2023 NFL Draft, Miami would be sacrificing 1/4th of their draft capital, probably pick 84, in order to make this move. If they wait till post-June 1st, which would be better for the Titans salary cap wise, they would be sacrificing 2024 capital. The only problem with sending 2024 capital is that Miami is missing their 3rd (tampering) and 4th (Bradley Chubb trade) round draft picks so the question becomes what are you trading to get Henry at that point? If you trade your second round pick you will only have a 1,5,6,7 because it doesn't appear as if Miami is going to be getting any comp picks next off-season.
So, would Derrick Henry be a great addition to the Dolphin's offense? Absolutely! Henry would be a game changing addition to this offense and as much as I would love to see Henry in aqua and orange, I don't think it makes sense for the team from a salary and trade compensation standpoint.
Dalvin Cook has been a really good running back for the Minnesota Vikings since he was drafted in the 2017 draft. Last year Cook had 264 carries, 1,173, 4.4 YPC, and 8 rushing touchdowns to go along with 39 receptions for 295 yards and 2 more touchdowns.
Adding Dalvin Cook's contract to the Dolphins roster would present the same issue in 2023 that the team would have with trading for Derrick Henry. Adding Cook adds $11 million to the salary cap this season, aka Miami needs to clear even more room to add Cook, fill other needs with players cut after June 1st, and sign the draft class. What makes Cook's contract more interesting than Henry's is the fact that after 2023, there are two years remaining on the contract that come with cap hits of $12.5 million in 2024 and $14.5 million in 2025. The good thing for Miami is they would be able to move on with essentially no dead cap as 2023 was the last year of guaranteed money on his contract so those salaries could be wiped off the board completely.
For trade compensation, talks reportedly broke down between Miami and Minnesota due to the Vikings wanting draft capital on day 2 for Cook which, to be honest, is not happening. If Minnesota wanted a 4 or a 5 for Cook I could see Miami getting on board for a trade but currently they don't have a pick in either of those rounds. Now, there is a chance that Dalvin Cook gets released and that is when Miami should jump on and try to acquire him on a one year, maybe two year with the option to add void years to lower the year two salary. Minnesota currently has just over $1 million in cap space and they have 5 draft picks they need to sign. Outside of Dalvin Cook, there aren't many players on the roster that the Vikings can move on from and save the amount of cap that Cook would (especially without taking a hit talent wise at more important positions).
The last caveat we have to consider is the investments the Dolphins made at running back this off-season. Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson combined for 265 carries, 1283 yards, 4.8 yards per carry, and 6 touchdowns this past season, combined production that exceeded that of Dalvin Cook last season. Are Mostert and Wilson on the same level as Dalvin Cook? No. But the thing that makes the duo of Mostert and Wilson as appealing as Cook or Henry is the salary. Both backs are under contract for the next two seasons for a little over $4 million in cap each season. Miami can move on from both backs next off-season no questions asked but one would assume that the team is just going to run it back unless they decide to draft a player like Jahmyr Gibbs in the second round.
So what should Miami do? If this team is all in on this year and is ready to risk it all and worry about the future later, find a way to make everything work and go make a move for Derrick Henry. Dalvin Cook would be a fine addition to the roster but Derrick Henry gives this team something it doesn't have which is size and power at the running back position that teams actually fear. If a trade for Henry doesn't happen because Miami wants to be smart for the future, wait and see if Dalvin Cook gets cut post-June 1st and then make your move. I think Miami will be fine either way at running back but you can't help but acknowledge how significant it would be to add someone like Derrick Henry to an already loaded roster.