It's no secret to anyone who watches the Miami Dolphins that Christian Wilkins has become a dominant force on the interior of the defensive line. Along with that, Wilkins has established himself as one of the core leaders of this football team. As Wilkins enters 2023 on his 5th year option, which will pay him just over $10m, it's time for the team to open up the check book and extend him.
Wilkins' play has improved each of his first seasons in the league including recording two record breaking season in which he recorded 89 tackles in 2021, a record for a defensive tackle, and then he broke his own record this past season with 98 tackles.
| COMB | AST | Sack | INT | YDS | TD |
| 2022 | 98 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
| 2021 | 89 | 40 | 4.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
| 2020 | 47 | 19 | 1.5 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
|
| 2019 | 56 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
| Career | 290 | 124 | 11.5 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Wilkins may not appear to be as dominant of a pass rusher as fellow 2019 draft mates Jeffery Simmons (21 career sacks) and former college teammate Dexter Lawrence (16.5 sacks), Wilkins has done the dirty work for this Dolphins team taking on double teams and being the first man involved in stunts to open up pass rush lanes for guys like Jaelen Phillips, Bradley Chubb, Andrew Van Ginkel, and others.
Before we can dive into the potential options for the team, it is important to look at the defensive tackle market and how recent contracts could affect the Wilkins extension.
Current Defensive Tackle Contracts:
Overthecap.com currently has Christian Wilkins' contract valuation set at $13,514,000 and while that would be wonderful for the Dolphins, that price seems to be highly unrealistic. These are the top 15 highest paid interior defensive linemen in the NFL as things currently stand and the players highlighted in yellow represent contracts signed this off-season (With both Simmons and Lawrence both seeking new contracts as well):
| Player | Team | Age | Total
Value | Avg./Year | Total
Guaranteed | Fully
Guaranteed |
| Aaron Donald | Rams | 32 | $95,000,000 | $31,666,667 | $65,000,000 | $46,500,000 |
| Daron Payne | Commanders | 26 | $90,000,000 | $22,500,000 | $60,020,000 | $46,010,000 |
| Javon Hargrave | 49ers | 30 | $84,000,000 | $21,000,000 | $40,000,000 | $40,000,000 |
| Leonard Williams | Giants | 29 | $63,000,000 | $21,000,000 | $45,000,000 | $45,000,000 |
| DeForest Buckner | Colts | 29 | $84,000,000 | $21,000,000 | $56,378,000 | $39,378,000 |
| Chris Jones | Chiefs | 29 | $80,000,000 | $20,000,000 | $60,000,000 | $37,626,000 |
| Jonathan Allen | Commanders | 28 | $72,000,000 | $18,000,000 | $35,642,235 | $33,142,235 |
| Vita Vea | Buccaneers | 28 | $71,000,000 | $17,750,000 | $40,596,440 | $14,734,440 |
| Kenny Clark | Packers | 28 | $70,000,000 | $17,500,000 | $25,000,000 | $25,000,000 |
| Dre'Mont Jones | Seahawks | 26 | $51,530,000 | $17,176,667 | $30,000,000 | $23,000,000 |
| Arik Armstead | 49ers | 30 | $85,000,000 | $17,000,000 | $45,850,000 | $34,150,000 |
| Grady Jarrett | Falcons | 30 | $49,500,000 | $16,500,000 | $36,470,588 | $34,470,588 |
| Cameron Heyward | Steelers | 34 | $65,600,000 | $16,400,000 | $20,250,000 | $20,250,000 |
| Zach Allen | Broncos | 26 | $45,750,000 | $15,250,000 | $32,500,000 | $32,500,000 |
| Dalvin Tomlinson | Browns | 29 | $57,000,000 | $14,250,000 | $27,500,000 | $25,000,000 |
If you compare Christian Wilkins' 2022 season against the seasons of each player that signed this off-season you can see that each player performed at a very high level. Wilkins, unsurprisingly considering he broke the record, Wilkins led the group in tackles, was second in TFLs, but would be second to last in sacks and last in QB hits. Do stats mean everything and tell the true story? No, not at all. But it does give you some background knowledge on the statistical evaluation of similar players signing deals.
| Year | Age | Tm | Pos | G | PD | FF | Fmb | FR | TD | Sk | Comb | Solo | Ast | TFL | QBHits |
| Wilkins 2022 | 27 | MIA | DT | 17 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3.5 | 98 | 59 | 39 | 16 | 7 |
| Payne 2022 | 25 | WAS | DT | 17 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11.5 | 64 | 32 | 32 | 18 | 20 |
| Hargrave 2022 | 29 | PHI | DT | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 10 | 16 |
| Jones 2022 | 25 | DEN | DE | 13 | | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.5 | 47 | 24 | 23 | 9 | 10 |
| Allen 2022 | 25 | ARI | DE | 13 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.5 | 47 | 23 | 24 | 10 | 20 |
| Tomlinson 2022 | 28 | MIN | DL | 13 | | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2.5 | 42 | 20 | 22 | 3 | 10 |
The Wilkins Contract:
So what does all this mean for Wilkins and his contract? It means that Wilkins is going to be making a lot more than the $13,514,000 valuation that Overthecap has on his new contract. Spotrac.com lists Wilkins market value at 4 yrs, $61,333,563 ($15.3m per season) which would be another ideal contract for the Dolphins and one that I could potentially see being the case IF he takes a home town discount and his agent and Wilkins account for the fact that Florida has no state income tax. But if you look at the market, that will be right in line with what Denver paid Zach Allen this off-season. Zach Allen is a fine football player but is he really on Christian Wilkins' level? I expect that Wilkins will sign a contract closer to that of Dre'Mont Jones than Allen or even Dalvin Tomlinson.
One important thing to consider, the Dolphins are already $14 million over the salary cap next year so whatever contract that Wilkins signs. Many Dolphins' fans want to extend Wilkins to lower his cap hit this year but the wiser move in my mind would be to add some money to Wilkins current 2023 cap hit after June 1st (when Byron Jones' contract comes off the books and the team gains $12m in cap space) to lower next year's cap hit. Expect Brandon Shore to have the contract set up to give Miami as much flexibility as possible with one or two void years on the back end of the deal.
Prediction: Wilkins will sign a 4 year, $70 million, $17.5 million per year, $33.5 million guaranteed
